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We'll know Wednesday morning if a special election in Tennessee is truly a referendum on country music, pedal taverns and bachelorettes.
Or, if we can divine a deeper political meaning from the results of the special election in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District.
Democrat Aftyn Behn is trying to tip the scales in favor of her party in a district which President Trump carried by about 20 points and former Rep. Mark Green, R-Tenn., won by a similar percentage last fall.
Behn faces GOPer Matt Van Epps. It's a Republican district. But political observers are watching the race to gauge potential weakness by President Trump, a softness in the Trump coalition, issues with the Republican brand or early indications of a possible blue wave in the 2026 midterms.
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It was Behn who proclaimed that she abhorred Nashville several years ago. "I hate the bachelorettes, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate country music. I hate all the things that make Nashville apparently an 'it city,'" complained Behn.
About all Behn left out in her animus toward Music City was dissing The Grand Ole Opry, hot chicken and Goo Goo Clusters. But if voters go goo goo over Behn Tuesday, Republicans face a cluster of another sort. A Behn victory may signal major problems for Republicans and President Trump heading into the midterms.
Behn is characterized as the "AOC of Tennessee," a reference to progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. Republicans have been sure to boomerang that against Behn, suggesting she's not in tune with the district, leans too far to the left and is closer to the liberal values of New York or Los Angeles than Nashville. Republicans believe Behn is just a bad fit for Nashville. Kind of like having Bad Bunny perform at the Ryman Auditorium.
"It shouldn't even be close. But it is," mused Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., on Fox.
So Republicans are pouring in money to protect the seat. Democrats are pouring in money to steal the seat. If Democrats pull off the upset, the party should uproot the goalposts at FirstBank Stadium in downtown Nashville and dump it in the Cumberland River. Kind of what Vanderbilt fans did last year when the Commodores upset number one-ranked Alabama.
Let's explore what a Behn win might mean for Republicans. It could indicate that voters are tiring of President Trump. Or that the GOP brand is toxic. Or perhaps it's the continuation of a trend which Democrats enjoyed this fall: near blowout wins by New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill and Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger.
But there's a downside for Democrats. Yes. They may flip the seat. But a win may also show that the party is tilting more to the left. It would be hard to argue with success if Behn prevails, regardless of her progressive streak. But this may give other liberals ideas that they can win in other red or purple districts. That may work against Democrats - especially since every Republican, except President Trump - has highlighted the left-wing politics of New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani.
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Democrats probably need to run more centrist candidates in purple areas to regain control of the House. A Behn victory could open the floodgates for a host of progressive candidates in competitive House districts nationwide. Behn's message - or that of Ocasio-Cortez or Mamdani - won't work in most places where Democrats need to be successful to seize control of the House.
But what if Republicans hold the seat and Van Epps wins?
It probably depends by how much.
Yes, there were five special elections in 2017 - the first year President Trump was originally in office - which Democrats made competitive. All were closer than they should have been. But Democrats didn't win any of them. Still, astute political observers suggested there was unpopularity with the president and the GOP agenda. Democrats won 41 seats and gained control of the House in the 2018 midterms.
So, even if Van Epps wins, examine the margin. And if Behn wins, see if Republicans downplay it because it was a special election and the customary electorate just doesn't turn out for special elections. Especially one wedged between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
If Republicans hold the seat, the GOP will argue this was a repudiation of a leftist like Behn and someone who was out of step. They will also suggest that it's a GOP seat and Republicans should win anyway. That's what happened earlier this year when there was consternation before two Florida special elections. But Reps. Randy Fine, R-Fla., and Jimmy Patronis, R-Fla., both won in March.
Here's another factor which bears watching: the message the press corps and political observers glean from the election results. After all, special elections are always special. It's natural for analysts and journalists to search for particular meanings or signposts in these contests. Such was the case with the off-year elections in New Jersey, Virginia and New York City. Sometimes these observations are spot-on. Other times, they mean nothing. If anything, there is a tendency to over-illuminate the outcomes of these contests. They are moments in time. Kind of like listening to a few bars of a song. Maybe it tells you a lot about the song. Maybe not.
House Republicans could well freak out if Behn is victorious. There's lots of grumbling among Republicans. Some are frustrated by how their leadership handled the government shutdown. And others could follow Mark Green and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., and hit the exits early.
This is a fragile time for House Republicans. That's one reason why a flip of this seat could mean a little bit more.
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Still, it's rare to flip seats in House special elections. Former Rep. Don Cazayoux, D-La., won a special election in a red district in Louisiana in 2008 after former Rep. Richard Baker, R-La., resigned. But current Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., then won that seat in the general election and served in the House before moving to the Senate.
Former Rep. Mayra Flores, R-Texas, flipped the seat held by former Rep. Filemon Vela, D-Texas, in 2022. But she lost reelection that fall.
Former Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Calif., won a special election in 2020 after former Rep. Katie Hill, D-Calif., resigned just months into office. Garcia held the seat until Rep. George Whitesides, D-Calif., defeated him a year ago.
Former Rep. Charles Djou, R-Hawaii, won a special election in Hawaii in 2010 against two Democrats - former Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, D-Hawaii, and Rep. Ed Case, D-Hawaii. But Democrats got the seat back in 2012.
Former Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, won a special election in 2022 to flip Alaska's at-large district from red to blue following the death of late Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska. Young held the seat for nearly 50 years. But Rep. Nick Begich III, R-Alaska, defeated Peltola last year.
In short, even if someone flips a seat, it's rare that they have the seat for long. Often, only through the next regular election.
So a word of caution as you evaluate the election results on Tuesday night. If Republicans hold the seat, that may be expected. If Democrats flip the seat, some will proclaim it's the second coming of the Music City Miracle.
But frankly, it's probably not.
